Abemaciclib for Patients With Retinoblastoma-Positive, Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustmetastaticradiationtumorcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdays beforeaminotransferase14investigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 262 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ABemaciclib, ET ± paclItaxel in aGgressive HR+/HER2- MBC trIaL NCT04603183 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/II Trial of Abemaciclib and Elacestrant in Patients With Brain Metastasis Due to HR+/Her2- Breast Cancer NCT04791384 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating Cancer Response to Treatment With Abemaciclib and Fulvestrant in Women With Recurrent Endometrial Cancer NCT03643510 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of ABEMACICLIB Monotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer After Failure of Platinum and Cetuximab or Anti-EGFR-based Therapy and Harboring an Homozygous Deletion of CDKN2A, and/or an Amplification of CCND1 and/or of CDK6 NCT03356223 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• ZAP-IT: ZN-c3 + Carboplatin + Pembrolizumab in mTNBC NCT06351332 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.