Evaluation of ABEMACICLIB Monotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer After Failure of Platinum and Cetuximab or Anti-EGFR-based Therapy and Harboring an Homozygous Deletion of CDKN2A, and/or an Amplification of CCND1 and/or of CDK6

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: study drugsurgeryof studypatient hasventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningclinicalprogressionevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Abemaciclib for Patients With Retinoblastoma-Positive, Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03130439 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Multiorgan Metabolic Imaging Response Assessment of Abemaciclib NCT03339843 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous-cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT03818061 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Ficlatuzumab w/wo Cetuximab in Patients w/Cetuximab-Resistant, Recurrent or Metastatic Head/Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03422536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Korean Cancer Study Group: Translational bIomarker Driven UMbrella Project for Head and Neck (TRIUMPH), Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma- Part 1 (HNSCC)] NCT03292250 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.