Korean Cancer Study Group: Translational bIomarker Driven UMbrella Project for Head and Neck (TRIUMPH), Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma- Part 1 (HNSCC)]

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartpatientfailureuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whocriteria patientspatients witharmrelevant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 197 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 408 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4878 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) in Combination With Another Anti-cancer Drug in Participants With Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02079636 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of ABEMACICLIB Monotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer After Failure of Platinum and Cetuximab or Anti-EGFR-based Therapy and Harboring an Homozygous Deletion of CDKN2A, and/or an Amplification of CCND1 and/or of CDK6 NCT03356223 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• The BURAN Study of Buparlisib in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic HNSCC NCT04338399 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Olaparib and Bevacizumab in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects NCT04939662 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.