Phase I Mitomycin Combined With Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellsmm3invasivepatients with
  Phrases that lowered it: trialthan 500goodopinion18
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 147 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Effectiveness and Safety of Neoadjuvant Intravesical Mitomycin-C Instillation NCT03058757 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Response to 2 Induction Courses (12 Intravesical Instillations) of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for High Risk Superficial Bladder Cancer NCT02281383 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study of CG0070 Given in Combination With Pembrolizumab, in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer, Unresponsive to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin NCT04387461 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of UGN-102 for Low-Grade Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04688931 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Versus BCG Alone in Participants With High-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (HR NMIBC) NCT04149574 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.