Nicotinic Treatment of Post-Chemotherapy Subjective Cognitive Impairment: A Pilot Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braincancerchemotherapyunstabledisease
  Phrases that lowered it: nicotineparticipantsevaluate theto evaluatedrugs
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 29.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Donepezil in Female Breast Cancer Survivors With Cognitive Dysfunction NCT01466270 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Effect of Methylphenidate on Cancer-related Cognitive Impairment NCT02970500 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Memantine for Prevention of Cognitive Decline in Patients With Breast Cancer NCT04033419 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Study of Nicotine for Pain Associated With Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy NCT04468230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Memory Improvement Through Nicotine Dosing (MIND) Study NCT02720445 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.