Memory Improvement Through Nicotine Dosing (MIND) Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalbrainmriequal tocarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsgoodthe studydrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Effect of Galantamine on Short-term Abstinence NCT01669538 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT02322021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• A Multinational, Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Active Comparator, Phase III Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Donepezil Transdermal Patch in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03197740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Bryostatin Treatment of Moderately Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT04538066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.