Topical Steroids Alone or Associated With Methotrexate in Bullous Pemphigoid
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (67 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2008-01-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientor equalequal togreater thanpatients
Phrases that lowered it: topicaldayalcoholclinicalsubjects -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24934 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8142 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- clobetasol, clobetasol propionate, methotrexate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Therapeutic Effect and Safety of Adjunctive AKST4290 in Subjects With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT04499235 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in Bullous Pemphigoid NCT04117932 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- A Proof-of-Concept Study of Topical AC-203 in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT03286582 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Dupilumab in Adult Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT04206553 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Pilot Efficacy and Safety Study of Oral DF2156A in Patients With Active Bullous Pemphigoid NCT01571895 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.