Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in Bullous Pemphigoid
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-22, after 2020-03-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicprior topressurestrokebp
Phrases that lowered it: patientefficacypatientslesionsor presence -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 38 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45277 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12104 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ustekinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Topical Steroids Alone or Associated With Methotrexate in Bullous Pemphigoid NCT02313870 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Proof-of-Concept Study of Topical AC-203 in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT03286582 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Anti-IL-5 Therapy in Bullous Pemphigoid (BP) NCT01705795 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Dupilumab in Adult Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid NCT04206553 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Phase III Clinical Trial of NPB-01 in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid Unresponsive to Corticosteroids NCT01408550 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.