A Study of MTP-131 Topical Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Diabetic Macular Edema and Non-Exudative Intermediate Age-related Macular Degeneration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: macularstudy eyedegenerationage relatedamd
  Phrases that lowered it: ocularlabelophthalmicother protocolprotocol defined
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 2-part Study Consisting of Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) Safety Study, and a Dose-finding Masked Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Intravitreal (IVT) EYE103 in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) or Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration (NVAMD) NCT05919693 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of IVT MHU650 in Macular Edema Patients NCT04635800 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Topical Administration of FOV2304 (High Dose or Low Dose) for the Treatment of Center-involving Clinically Significant Macular Edema Associated With Diabetic Retinopathy NCT01319487 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of MP0112 Intravitreal Injection in Patients With Diabetic Macular Edema NCT01042678 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of iCo-007 Intravitreal Injection to Treat Diabetic Macular Edema NCT00886808 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.