Alisertib and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Gastrointestinal Tumors
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 24% of the time (231 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-29, after 2015-08-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priormedicationseffectshearttherapy
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoallergicoxaliplatingastrointestinalupper -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 972 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 972 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 58380 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9816 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alisertib, fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, uracil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Irinotecan and Alisertib in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors or Colorectal Cancer NCT01923337 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Alisertib in Treating Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Sarcoma NCT01653028 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Alisertib and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Solid Tumors or Pancreatic Cancer NCT01924260 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Combining MLN8237 With Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies NCT01677559 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Alisertib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Persistent Leiomyosarcoma of the Uterus NCT01637961 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.