Alisertib and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Solid Tumors or Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatients mustchemotherapysubject isprior
  Phrases that lowered it: solidtumorsadvancedexpansiondose
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Irinotecan and Alisertib in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors or Colorectal Cancer NCT01923337 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Combining MLN8237 With Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies NCT01677559 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of MLN0128 and MLN8237 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors and Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT02719691 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety and Tolerability of MLN8237, In Combination With Erlotinib to Treat Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01471964 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Alisertib and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Gastrointestinal Tumors NCT02319018 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.