Phase I Study of MLN0128 and MLN8237 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors and Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerventricularmetastaticreceptorheart
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsulnpulmonary diseaseasthmadrug
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 101 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 227 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combining MLN8237 With Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies NCT01677559 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics Study of MLN0128 as a Single Agent and in Combination With Paclitaxel in Adults With Advanced Nonhematologic Malignancies NCT02412722 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Alisertib and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Solid Tumors or Pancreatic Cancer NCT01924260 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Bevacizumab, Everolimus and LBH589 (BEL) for Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01055795 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• OLAParib COmbinations NCT02576444 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.