Phase II Study of Irinotecan and Cisplatin in Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancerstagecell lungsmall cellbreast
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andirinotecanclinical triallesionsmulticenter
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Radiation Therapy, Cisplatin, and Etoposide in Treating Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01411098 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Safety and Tolerability Study of Cediranib (RECENTIN™, AZD2171) in Combination With Chemo in First Line Lung Cancer Patients NCT00621361 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Toripalimab in Combination With Platinum Plus Etoposidein Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04012606 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Study for Therapy of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Cisplatin / Docetaxel or Oxaliplatin / Docetaxel NCT01222312 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Trial in Extensive-Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer (ED-SCLC) Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Plus Etoposide and Platinum Therapy to Etoposide and Platinum Therapy Alone NCT01450761 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.