Toripalimab in Combination With Platinum Plus Etoposidein Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-04-20, after 2019-07-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: small cellcell lungcisplatinstagelung cancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantssolidtumorsmaleevaluate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 53254 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9685 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, cisplatin etoposide, toripalimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Platinum Plus Etoposide With or Without Tislelizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04005716 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Patients With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04256421 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Study of Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With or Without Atezolizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage (ES) Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02763579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Trilaciclib (G1T28), a CDK 4/6 Inhibitor, in Combination With Etoposide and Carboplatin in Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02499770 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Study of Toripalimab for Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer Following Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy NCT04418648 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.