A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Patients With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecelllung cancersmallplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsor historysolidhistory ofevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18251 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 103391 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04665856 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of Platinum Plus Etoposide With or Without Tislelizumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04005716 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Study of Ociperlimab Plus Tislelizumab Plus Chemoradiotherapy in Participants With Untreated Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04952597 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tiragolumab in Combination With Atezolizumab Plus Pemetrexed and Carboplatin/Cisplatin Versus Pembrolizumab Plus Pemetrexed and Carboplatin/Cisplatin in Participants With Previously Untreated Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04619797 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Tiragolumab Consolidation in Limited Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04308785 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.