Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellstagecarboplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningdiseasesevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1175 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19516 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 119322 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Tiragolumab Consolidation in Limited Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04308785 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Patients With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04256421 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Atezolizumab With or Without Trilaciclib (G1T28), a CDK4/6 Inhibitor, in Extensive-Stage SCLC NCT03041311 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study of Low-Dose Radiotherapy (LDRT) Concurrent Cisplatin/Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With Atezolizumab for Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04622228 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tiragolumab in Combination With Atezolizumab in Chemotherapy-Naïve Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03563716 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.