Study of Toripalimab for Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer Following Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-05-31, after 2020-06-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: small cellcell lunglung cancerstagechemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: multiplesclerosisand safetyefficacy andarthritis -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 171 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 159 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 50% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- toripalimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of an Anti-PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody in Subjects With Advanced Malignancies NCT03474640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Toripalimab Combined With Double Platinum-based Chemotherapy for Initially Unresectable NSCLC NCT04144608 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Tiragolumab Consolidation in Limited Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04308785 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Toripalimab in Combination With Platinum Plus Etoposidein Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04012606 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Ipilimumab + Nivolumab w/Thoracic Radiotherapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03043599 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.