Ipilimumab + Nivolumab w/Thoracic Radiotherapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-11-16, after 2017-02-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationplatinumchemotherapycell lunglung cancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdruginterfere withaccording -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10443 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 140 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 28.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 31 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20642 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10443 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Radiation and Chemotherapy With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab for Patients With Stage III Unresectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03663166 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
- Unresectable Stage IIIA/IIIB Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03285321 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Atezolizumab and Varlilumab in Combination With Radiation Therapy for NSCLC NCT04081688 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.