Radiation and Chemotherapy With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab for Patients With Stage III Unresectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationtumorcancertherapyanti
  Phrases that lowered it: lungpatientsmalemay applyvisit
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14635 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Radiation and Immune Checkpoints Blockade in Metastatic NSCLC (BMS # CA209-632) NCT03168464 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab + Nivolumab w/Thoracic Radiotherapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03043599 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab With or Without Ipilimumab or Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Stage I-IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03158129 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.