Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancernsclccell lungsmall cellnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: subject hasmethodsdailymalecombination
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 210 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Anti-PD-1-axis Therapy-resistant Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT03262779 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Single Agent Chemotherapy +/- Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Squamous or Non-squamous NSCLC With Primary Resistance to Prior PD-1 or PDL-1 Inhibitor NCT03041181 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab Verses Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Combination in EGFR Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03091491 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in NSCLC NCT02382406 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.