Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantdose ofstagestem
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsstudy willindividualsmkrange
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8990 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44441 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Continuation Therapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03083808 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Anti-PD-1-axis Therapy-resistant Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT03262779 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of AGEN1884 With Pembrolizumab in 1L NSCLC NCT03411473 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Effect of Pembrolizumab With or Without Carboplatin and Paclitaxel on Immune Response in Patients With Recurrent or Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02581943 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.