Effect of Pembrolizumab With or Without Carboplatin and Paclitaxel on Immune Response in Patients With Recurrent or Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lungsmall celllung cancernon smallchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: effectdefinedpatients whodrugspatients with
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 89 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 228 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12005 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Pembrolizumab and Chemotherapy With or Without Radiation in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02934503 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Genetic Predictors of Benefit to Pembrolizumab NCT02710396 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II-IIIB Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02621398 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in NSCLC NCT02382406 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab in Patients With Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02955758 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.