Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Anti-PD-1-axis Therapy-resistant Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-01-14, after 2017-07-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects withradiationtumordiseasestudy drug
Phrases that lowered it: resistancejointlesionaxismonotherapy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 506 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12154 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 506 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 125 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 25716 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12154 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Atezolizumab and Varlilumab in Combination With Radiation Therapy for NSCLC NCT04081688 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Genetic Predictors of Benefit to Pembrolizumab NCT02710396 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Carboplatin/Nab-Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in NSCLC NCT02382406 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.