Study of Nivolumab Verses Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Combination in EGFR Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-11-18, after 2017-04-07 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 35.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcancerradiationchemotherapyegfr
Phrases that lowered it: pulmonaryaminotransferasefirst dosedrugmale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 14 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 35.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22579 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11100 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Anti-PD-1-axis Therapy-resistant Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT03262779 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Versus Chimiotherapy in First Line Treatment in PS 2 or Elderly in Advanced NSCLC Patients NCT03351361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.