MK-3475/BCG in High Risk Superficial Bladder Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-27, after 2015-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcancersmalltumorsubject
Phrases that lowered it: mkthe trialsingledosewithin weeks -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1051 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 40% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1051 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1049 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab With Chemoradiotherapy as Treatment for Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02662062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Dose-escalation Study of UGN-301 in Patients With Recurrent Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT05375903 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Intravesical Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) in BCG Refractory High-Risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) Patients NCT03053635 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Muscle-invasive Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma NCT02736266 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Intermediate Risk Recurrent Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT03167151 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.