Phase 2 Study of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) in Patients With Glioblastoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-06, after 2015-02-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mricellmonthsbraindl
Phrases that lowered it: subjectspsoriasisevaluate theto evaluateadministered -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 35 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 39450 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4642 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 32.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, durvalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab and Reirradiation in Bevacizumab Naïve and Bevacizumab Resistant Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT03661723 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and a Vaccine (ATL-DC) for the Treatment of Surgically Accessible Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT04201873 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab Plus SurVaxM for Glioblastoma at First Recurrence NCT04013672 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- First-in-Human, Phase 1b/2a Trial of a Multipeptide Therapeutic Vaccine in Patients With Progressive Glioblastoma NCT04116658 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib and Phase II Studies of MK-3475 in Combination + for Renal Cell Carcinoma: NCT02348008 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.