Aspirin and Zileuton and Biomarker Expression in Nasal Tissue of Current Smokers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerinstitutionalentrymelanomaimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsnasalsmokersbodyaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1012 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 254504 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 52689 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Zileuton With or Without Celecoxib As Chemopreventive Agents in Smokers NCT01021215 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Intermittent or Continuous Acetylsalicylic Acid and Gene Expression in the Nasal Tissue of Current Smokers NCT02123849 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of Oral Administration of AIM-102 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Allergic Asthma NCT01501942 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study to Evaluate the Effect of AZD4604 on Airway Inflammation and Biomarkers in Adults With Asthma NCT06435273 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Three Part SAD, MAD & Cross-Over Study of ZP-059 in Healthy and Asthmatic Subjects NCT04229303 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.