Phase II Study to Evaluate the Effect of AZD4604 on Airway Inflammation and Biomarkers in Adults With Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercombinationpriortherapyallowed
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantsmmhgparticipantvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1917 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Once Daily Inhaled AZD8630 in Adults With Asthma NCT06795906 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of Oral Administration of AIM-102 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Allergic Asthma NCT01501942 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4604 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Uncontrolled on Medium-High Dose ICS-LABA NCT06020014 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Onset of Effect and Time Course of Change in Lung Function With Benralizumab in Severe, Uncontrolled Asthma Patients With Eosinophilic Inflammation NCT02869438 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Effects of AZD8630 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Asthma on Inhaled Corticosteroids and Long-acting Beta-agonists NCT05110976 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.