A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Once Daily Inhaled AZD8630 in Adults With Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: definedcellpriortreatedcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmafev1participantto visitsmokers
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1960 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2a Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4604 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Uncontrolled on Medium-High Dose ICS-LABA NCT06020014 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Atuliflapon in Moderate-to-Severe Uncontrolled Asthma NCT05251259 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Effects of AZD8630 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Asthma on Inhaled Corticosteroids and Long-acting Beta-agonists NCT05110976 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics (PK), Pharmacodynamics (PD) and Safety of 2-Week Treatment With Inhaled AZD7594 in Adolescents (12 to 17 Years) With Asthma NCT03976869 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate/Umeclidinium/Vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) in Chinese Participants With Inadequately Controlled Asthma NCT04937387 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.