Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Atuliflapon in Moderate-to-Severe Uncontrolled Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: treatedrandomizationcancerpriorconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantparticipantsvisitsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1707 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 192 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of Once Daily Inhaled AZD8630 in Adults With Asthma NCT06795906 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of AZD4604 in Adult Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Uncontrolled on Medium-High Dose ICS-LABA NCT06020014 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Proof of Concept Study of Rilzabrutinib in Adult Participants With Moderate-to-severe Asthma NCT05104892 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of CBP-201 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Persistent Asthma With Type 2 Inflammation NCT04773678 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate (FF) 100 mcg Once Daily With Fluticasone Propionate (FP) 250 mcg Twice Daily (BD) and FP 100 mcg BD in Well-controlled Asthmatic Japanese Subjects NCT02094937 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.