Proof of Concept Study of Rilzabrutinib in Adult Participants With Moderate-to-severe Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypriorsclerosislungrefractory
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateasthmafev1to severepulmonary
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1014 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of CBP-201 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Persistent Asthma With Type 2 Inflammation NCT04773678 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Onset of Effect and Time Course of Change in Lung Function With Benralizumab in Severe, Uncontrolled Asthma Patients With Eosinophilic Inflammation NCT02869438 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of SAR440340 and as Combination Therapy With Dupilumab in Moderate-to-Severe Asthma Participants NCT03387852 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Atuliflapon in Moderate-to-Severe Uncontrolled Asthma NCT05251259 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of GSK3511294 (Depemokimab) in Participants With Severe Asthma With an Eosinophilic Phenotype NCT04718103 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.