A Phase 2 Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of ABT-122 in Subjects With Active Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate (MTX)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dldefinedulnsubjectaminotransferase
  Phrases that lowered it: drugsefficacyoralpharmacokineticssafety
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of ABT-122 Given With Methotrexate in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT02141997 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Given With Methotrexate (MTX) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to MTX Alone NCT02066389 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Upadacitinib (ABT-494) to Placebo and to Adalimumab in Participants With Psoriatic Arthritis Who Have an Inadequate Response to at Least One Non-Biologic Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug (DMARD) NCT03104400 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT01554696 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.