18F-AV-1451 High Resolution Autopsy Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-06-16, after 2016-11-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lymphomabrainmetastasestumorlife
Phrases that lowered it: 30historyrelationshipparticipatedclinically significant -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 89 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 89 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 34 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2471 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 257 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- flortaucipir f18, indole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 18F-AV-1451 Autopsy Study NCT02516046 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Imaging Characteristics of a Follow-up 18F-AV-1451 Scan NCT02051764 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- Follow up 18F-AV-1451 Scan in Confirmatory Cohort Subjects From Study 18F-AV-1451-A05 NCT02795780 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Study of Flortaucipir PET in Healthy Volunteers and Cognitively Impaired Subjects NCT01992380 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- 18F-AV-1451 PET Imaging in Participants Enrolled in the LEARN Study NCT02850146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.