18F-AV-1451 Autopsy Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-15, after 2015-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: imagingbrainstagepetliver
Phrases that lowered it: donation20participatedstudymedication -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 29 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2103 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 393 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 48.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- flortaucipir f18, indole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 18F-AV-1451 High Resolution Autopsy Study NCT02350634 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study of the Correlation Between Florbetapir F18 PET Imaging and Amyloid Pathology in the Brain NCT00857415 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Flortaucipir PET Imaging in Subjects With FTD NCT03040713 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- A Study of Two Doses of 18F-AV-45 in Alzheimer's Disease and Healthy Volunteers NCT01565330 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Tau PET Imaging With 18F-AV-1451 in Subjects With MAPT Mutations NCT02676843 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.