Concurrent EGFR-TKIs and Thoracic Radiation Therapy in Active EGFR Mutation for 1st Line Treatment of Stage IV NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagetermcellradiationmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: linelesionshepaticclinicaldiseases
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Induction Therapy With Intercalated Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) and Chemotherapy in NSCLC With Activating Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation in Stages II-IIIB NCT02326285 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine/Carboplatin in Chemo-naive Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 19 or 21 Mutation NCT00874419 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva) Versus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin as First-line Treatment in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With EGFR Mutations NCT01342965 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Biomarkers Impact on Participants Response to Erlotinib Treatment for First-line Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutations NCT01153984 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• 2nd Line Erlotinib Treatment With (Out) Chemotherapy of Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00835471 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.