A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Effects of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of ASP1707 in Healthy Male and Pre-menopausal Female Subjects, Including a Comparison of the Effects Under Fasted and Fed Conditions in Healthy Young Male Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingto determinetolerabilitynonplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymaleevaluateeffectsubjects
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2408 Following Single Intravenous Doses in Healthy Subjects NCT02125435 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ASP1617 in Healthy Adult Non-Asian and Japanese Subjects Including Assessment of a Food Effect NCT04077879 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Effects in and on the Body of Healthy Young and Elderly Male and Female Subjects of Ascending Multiple Oral Doses of ASP3652 NCT02243657 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability Between Two ASP015K Tablets and the Food Effect of a New Tablet in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT01929577 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• The PK/PD Study of SHR7280 Tablets in Healthy Subjects. NCT04554043 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.