Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-09-15, after 2015-09-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: her2lungstagebrainsmall cell
Phrases that lowered it: platinumpatientsaccordingthe trialhistory or -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 37.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 37.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1161 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 706 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02597946 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Trastuzumab Therapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT00758134 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Deciphering Afatinib Response and Resistance With INtratumour Heterogeneity NCT02183883 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Afatinib to Treat Lung Cancer Patients NCT01415011 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.