A Trial of Sertraline in Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: functiontrial isuncontrolledeffectsstable
  Phrases that lowered it: aged24childrendisorderlong
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9854 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 63562 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 6 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Sertraline to Treat Children With Fragile X Syndrome NCT01474746 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Specifying and Treating Anxiety in Autism Research NCT03279471 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of AST-001 in ASD Children NCT06333964 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Risperidone Treatment In Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder And High Levels Of Repetitive Behavior NCT01171937 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• D-Cycloserine and Social Skills Training in Autism Spectrum Disorders NCT01086475 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.