Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine, in Elderly Patients Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-31, after 2015-06-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerulnsubjectcoronary
Phrases that lowered it: patientsinvestigatetractclinicalfinding -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 32221 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 70 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 32221 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6955 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- gemcitabine, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Nab-paclitaxel (Abraxane), Gemcitabine, and Capecitabine (Xeloda) for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01161186 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine Versus Gemcitabine For The First Line Treatment of Pancreas Cancer NCT03807999 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT03559348 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine vs Gemcitabine Alone as Adjuvant Therapy for Patients With Resected Pancreatic Cancer (the Apact Study) NCT01964430 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.