Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticpancreaticpatientschemotherapyadenocarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: areapatients whomonths beforecompletedopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8305 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Study of Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01415713 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine, in Elderly Patients Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT02391662 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Hypofractionated Radio-chemotherapy With Gemcitabine Plus Oxaliplatin for Unresectable Nonmetastatic Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer. NCT02035072 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Oxaliplatin, Gemcitabine, and Erlotinib Study in Patients With Advanced Chemo-naïve Pancreatic Cancer NCT00636883 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.