Lorcaserin for Preventing Weight Gain Among Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (69 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2013-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: known toexcludeddepressionreceivingdefined
Phrases that lowered it: the pastweightvareniclinesmokinguse of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 43.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 447 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57278 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 447 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 175 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 57278 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3424 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 43.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lorcaserin, varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Addressing Post Cessation Weight Gain NCT02412631 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
- Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Lorcaserin Hydrochloride on Smoking Cessation NCT02044874 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Daily Liraglutide for Nicotine Dependence NCT03712098 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Mechanisms of Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT04396834 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.