Preoperative Study With Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab and Letrozole in Breast Cancer Patients Sensitive to Hormonal Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancercardiacheartmarrowprior
  Phrases that lowered it: endocrinehypersensitivitydrugsiiibrange
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Trial of Pertuzumab and Trastuzumab With Weekly Paclitaxel and Chemotherapy for HER2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT01855828 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Phase II Trial in Patients With T1c Operable, HER2-positive Breast Cancer According to TOP2A Status NCT02339532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel With Trastuzumab and Lapatinib in HER2-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01827163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pertuzumab in Addition to Chemotherapy and Trastuzumab as Adjuvant Therapy in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT01358877 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Combined Endocrine and HER2 Target Therapy in Postmenopausal Women With ER and Her2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT01275859 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.