Efficacy and Safety of G-CSF in Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis With Null or Partial Response to Steroid

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (90 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantationliverhemorrhagebreastcsf
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofand safetyefficacyinvestigate theto investigate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 96598 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Assess the Efficacy of Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor Versus Standard Medical Therapy in Patients of Decompensated Cirrhosis NCT02642003 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Selonsertib in Combination With Prednisolone Versus Prednisolone Alone in Participants With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis (AH) NCT02854631 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Short Course Steroids in Alcohol Associated Hepatitis NCT06919458 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Granulocyte Colony-stimulating Factor and Erythropoetin for Patients With Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure NCT01383460 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Antibiotic Therapy in Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis Treated With Prednisolone NCT02281929 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.