A Study of Intermittent Doses of CERC-301 in MDD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ivdsmdepressiveepisodereceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: the investigatoreffectaccordingimpairmentper day
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Sequential Parallel Study of CERC-301 in the Adjunctive Treatment of Subjects With Severe Depression and Recent Active Suicidal Ideation Despite Antidepressant Treatment NCT01941043 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Explore the Efficacy of JNJ-67953964 in the Treatment of Depression NCT03559192 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Riluzole in Treatment Resistant Depression NCT01204918 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-Concept Trial of CERC-501 Augmentation of Antidepressant Therapy in Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT01913535 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Study of Intravenous NRX-1074 in Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT02067793 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.