Ceritinib Rare Indications Study in ALK+ Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcellcancerradiationlung
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetylymphomalesiondiseasesinflammatory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 197 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 890 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Ceritinib in Patients With ALK-positive NSCLC Metastatic to the Brain and/or to Leptomeninges NCT02336451 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of LEE011 and Ceritinib in Patients With ALK-positive Non-small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT02292550 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• LDK378 in Adult Patients With ALK-activated NSCLC Previously Treated With Chemotherapy and Crizotinib NCT01685060 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• LDK378 in Crizotinib naïve Adult Patients With ALK-activated Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01685138 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study of Brigatinib in Participants With Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase-Positive (ALK+), Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Progressed on Alectinib or Ceritinib NCT03535740 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.