A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Ceritinib in Patients With ALK-positive NSCLC Metastatic to the Brain and/or to Leptomeninges

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainmetastaticnsclccellmri
  Phrases that lowered it: patientopen labellaboratorysafety oftest to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 241 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 761 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ceritinib Rare Indications Study in ALK+ Tumors NCT02465528 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin, Pemetrexed/Cisplatin, Carboplatin/Paclitaxel, Bevacizumab Maintenance, Erlotinib, Ipilimumab or as Monotherapy in Subjects With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (CheckMate 012) NCT01454102 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Alectinib Versus Pemetrexed or Docetaxel in Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK)-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Participants Previously Treated With Platinum-Based Chemotherapy and Crizotinib NCT02604342 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Brigatinib in Participants With Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase-Positive (ALK+), Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Progressed on Alectinib or Ceritinib NCT03535740 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy Combined with ICIs in First-line Alectinib Failed Patients with ALK-rearranged NSCLC NCT04997382 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.