Chemotherapy Combined with ICIs in First-line Alectinib Failed Patients with ALK-rearranged NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lungsmall celllung cancernon smallradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: lineinvestigatereceivedclinicalaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 83160 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Crizotinib Plus Pembrolizumab In Alk-Positive Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02511184 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial Testing The Efficacy Of Crizotinib Versus Standard Chemotherapy Pemetrexed Plus Cisplatin Or Carboplatin In Patients With ALK Positive Non Squamous Cancer Of The Lung NCT01154140 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study of Alectinib (CH5424802/RO5424802) in Participants With Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK)-Rearranged Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01871805 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Trial of Alectinib and Bevacizumab in Patients With Advanced, Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK)-Positive, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02521051 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• LDK378 in Crizotinib naïve Adult Patients With ALK-activated Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01685138 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.