Phase I/II Trial of Alectinib and Bevacizumab in Patients With Advanced, Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK)-Positive, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-04-30, after 2015-09-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: squamoussmall cellcell lungbrainintervention
Phrases that lowered it: participantsliverwithin 1414 daystransplant -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 544 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 184 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 42582 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4903 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 32.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alectinib, bevacizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Survival Prolongation by Rationale Innovative Genomics NCT03386929 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Bevacizumab in Patients With EGFR Mutation Positive Stage IIIB-IV Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04426825 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Combination Checkpoint Inhibitor Plus Erlotinib or Crizotinib for EGFR or ALK Mutated Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01998126 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1b Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Erlotinib or Alectinib in Participants With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02013219 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Anlotinib Hydrochloride Combined With AP in Stage IIIB/IIIC/IV Non-squamous Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT04012619 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.