Efficacy of ORM-12741 on Agitation/Aggression Symptoms in Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerheartdiseasethe subjectplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusiveinvestigatoruse ofthe screeningmale
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Alzheimer Disease Proof of Concept Study With BI 409306 Versus Placebo NCT02240693 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study of Systemic and Ocular Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BI 409306 in Patients With Schizophrenia, Alzheimer's Disease, and Healthy Volunteers NCT02392468 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• AC-1204 26-Week Long Term Efficacy Response Trial With Optional Open-label Ext NCT01741194 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of RO4602522 in Participants With Moderate Severity Alzheimer Disease on Background Alzheimer Disease Therapy NCT01677754 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy, and Safety Study Of BXCL501 For The Treatment Of Agitation Associated With Dementia NCT05276830 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.