221AD301 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebokeyscorebrainin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: the effectevaluateeffect ofclinicaland safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 221AD302 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02484547 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Verify the Clinical Benefit of Aducanumab in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT05310071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Aducanumab in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia to Evaluate the Safety of Continued Dosing in Participants With Asymptomatic Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities NCT03639987 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Multiple Dose Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) (Recombinant, Fully Human Anti-Aβ IgG1 mAb) in Participants With Prodromal or Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01677572 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Japanese Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT02434718 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.